AI and the 15% improvement you can expect

AI hype does not match reality. There will be ~15% improvements in outputs. AI does not replace good engineers. It will replace bad engineers. A short plan based on real projects using AI.

This Week:

1. Try GitHub Copilot or Cursor on a side project (not production)
2. Use Claude or ChatGPT to explain complex code you’re working with
3. Generate documentation for one undocumented function

This Month:

1. Measure your baseline productivity (how long do common tasks take?)
2. Use AI for all new test writing
3. Let AI write your SQL first drafts, then optimize

This Quarter:

1. Build team guidelines for AI use
2. Create prompt templates for common patterns
3. Track productivity improvements
4. Share learnings with your team

This Year:

1. Shift focus from implementation to architecture
2. Develop expertise in AI tool orchestration
3. Build domain expertise that AI can’t replicate

Productivity and unequal gains

Companies using AI tools report 10–15% productivity gains on average — not the 10x improvements promised by headlines, but significant enough to matter. Microsoft research shows it takes 11 weeks to realize these gains. That’s roughly a quarter to see real impact.

The most successful engineers on the team aren’t the ones who know the most about AI. They’re the ones who understand both the capabilities AND limitations of these tools, and more importantly, know how to bridge the gap between what AI can do and what the business actually needs.